Spandex adhere to bounce instead of reverse
2011-01-19 信息來源： 東莞遠隆皮料市場
Enter the four-quarter, due to the textile manufacturer needed winter coats in producing stock, so the seasonal pick up in demand (see Yantai spandex on August 18, 2010 research report), and spandex basic supply and demand balance of supply and demand in the short term, spandex price is not high, spandex price before price increases of about 56,000 yuan/ton, the industry average margin level is around 22-25%.
Price 2000 Yuan/ton, the gross margin up to around 28%. Due to the upper reaches of the polyurethane industry supply-demand balance, MDI around the sources of supply, tensions ease the effects of, the market remained roughly constant slight decrease in the center of gravity.
Adhere to bounce instead of the reverse point of view. 2009-2010 of total added spandex 61,000 tons production capacity in China, which in 2010, reaching 5000-6000 tons, but in 2011 of production will reach 670,000 tons, will impact on the industry is relatively large. Current price rebound rather than the reverse, if 2011 670,000 tons up to yield as expected, then we think of the polyurethane industry gross margins will run between-20% is reasonable.
Investment advice: we believe that in the four quarters of polyurethane needs a certain protection, prices will rebound, spandex manufacturers sequential profitability has improved, to increase its stake in the investment rating, but for medium and long term, we adhere to the air, neutral investment rating.
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